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ASEAN Stays in the Middle

January 30. 2014

STRATEGY POINTS

 

  • In Beijing’s recent moves in the East China Sea air defense zone and Hainan’s fishing law, the big question is ASEAN’s position

  • While the Philippines pushed for a tough line toward China, the 10-nation grouping called for “self-restraint” instead

  • Key to ASEAN’s evolving position is Myanmar’s chairmanship in 2014, which will likely preserve neutrality

 

 

Hainan Island’s implementation this month of its law requiring foreign vessels to get permission to fish in the waters it administers, has put the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on the spot. Predictably, the Philippines and Vietnam condemned the move, while the United States and Japan expressed grave concern. But the real question is really how ASEAN as a group will react.

 

The answer so far came at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Bagan, Myanmar, over the weekend. The 10-nation grouping did not cite the Hainan fishing law, but merely “reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability, maritime security, freedom of navigation and overflight,” according to Singapore’s Channel News Asia. The retreat also urged “self-restraint” rather than an adversarial stance against any state.

 

Manila urges ASEAN solidarity. Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario tried to get his fellow ministers to echo his strong line against the fishing rule. As reported by Rappler, the former ambassador to Washington told his counterparts at the meeting: “We are gravely concerned by this new regulation ... This development escalates tensions, unnecessarily complicates the situation in the South China Sea, and threatens the peace and stability of the region.” Also criticizing Beijing’s declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, del Rosario urged “regional solidarity” among ASEAN members.

 

 

Quoting a Department of Foreign Affairs statement, Philippine news reports portrayed the meeting as echoing Manila’s stance vis-a-vis Beijing. “ASEAN airs concern over new China sea law,” headlined top daily The Philippine Star, which the GMA News repeated on its website.

 

“On the regional and international issues, the foreign ministers stressed the importance of upholding ASEAN’s centrality in the evolving regional architecture in addressing the issues of common interest of ASEAN,” the DFA report said in language similar to the ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit communique last month. “The ministers also discussed ways to further contribute to the peace, stability and prosperity of the region and beyond,” del Rosario’s agency added.

 

Myanmar plays honest broker. In fact, ASEAN appeared to take a neutral stance toward contentious issues in the South China Sea. Indeed, this year’s ASEAN chair, Myanmar, offered to mediate between fellow member nations and China. “Our friendly relationship with China and membership of ASEAN means we can have good relations with both sides and be impartial and friendly to all parties concerned,” deputy information minister and presidential spokesperson Ye Htut told The Irrawaddy publication.

 

Until its democratic reforms starting in early 2011 thawed ties with the West, Myanmar was greatly dependent on its close economic relationship with China, calling each other paukphaw, or siblings, in the majority Burmese tongue. Back in 2006, Myanmar passed up its turn to chair the grouping, fearful of being snubbed by Western nations unhappy with its ruling junta.

 

Now, under reformist President Thein Sein, the country is keen to show its diplomatic mettle as ASEAN chair. Among other agenda, it hopes to finally work out a binding Code of Conduct (COC) to upgrade the November 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration governing activities in the South China Sea. Whether that elusive accord will finally be forged, one thing is certain: Myanmar will have to play honest broker, making sure to take no sides in disputes with China, if the latter is to be nudged toward productive COC talks.

 

Sums up Dr. Subhash Kapila of the South Asia Analysis Group think tank in his paper, “South China Sea and ASEAN Chairmanship”, posted January 6: “Myanmar’s greatest challenge would be to ensure that China during Myanmar’s charge is not tempted to transgress on ASEAN security in the South China Sea, nor does Myanmar cave-in to Chinese pressures on that issue. Myanmar would be expected by its fellow ASEAN nations that it steers the course of events in a manner that China becomes motivated for accommodation of ASEAN sensitivities on issues of DOC and COC and accepts multilateral negotiations.”

 

China’s charm offensive. With ASEAN staying neutral, resisting Manila’s push for a tough stance on the South China Sea, Beijing seems to be reaping the intended benefits of its efforts to build relations with Southeast Asia. Late last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang pressed the flesh and laid out the largesse in ASEAN capitals.

 

Beijing’s bosses talked of boosting trade with the region one and a half times, to $1 trillion by 2020, and pledged to work toward joining the Regional Economic Cooperation Program (RCEP) trade group. President Xi further floated the idea of an Asian infrastructure bank to fund projects, probably prompting Japan to come up with its own $20-billion package of grants and loans for 2014-18.

 

Perhaps even more crucial than the contest between China and Japan to woo ASEAN, the grouping does not want a repeat of the open discord at the 2012 summit in Phnom Penh, when China ally Cambodia clashed with U.S.-backed Philippines.

 

That means reaffirming the bloc’s decades-old policy of being friends with the big powers in the region. “In its nearly five-decade history, ASEAN has excelled in coping with the US-China confrontation,” recounts Kavi Chongkittavorn of Thailand’s The Nation daily. Good thing, because there will be a need for more of the same this year and beyond.

 

 

© 2014 by the Center for Strategy, Enterprise, and Intelligence. All rights reserved.

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